Macro regime navigation for savvy investors

Stay disciplined and systematic in any macro sea.

LOGIC Macro Regime is a simple, quantitative and systematic framework for navigating financial markets based on the macro cycle. Size risk with confidence and avoid being tossed around by daily noise.

Start Monthly Macro Map – $8.99 USD One signal. Once a month. No hype – just a systematic view of the currents.

LOGIC Framework: your macro map

The framework
L
Liquidity Cycle
How abundant – or scarce – money is across the system. The tide that lifts (or drops) all boats.
O
Other Financial Conditions
US dollar trends, credit spreads and policy shifts that tighten or loosen the channel your portfolio sails through.
G
Growth Cycle
Whether global economic activity is accelerating or slowing – the strength of the current beneath asset prices.
I
Inflation Cycle
The direction of prices that quietly changes which assets surf and which sink.
C
Capital Positioning
How investors are actually positioned – where leverage, crowding and dry powder sit on the deck.

LOGIC Macro Regime distills nearly two decades of professional investment management experience into a simple framework for reading capital market signals. Every component is grounded in data, back-testing, and empirical evidence of what truly drives markets – not headlines.

Proprietary indicators anchored on the Liquidity Cycle, Other Financial Conditions and Capital Positioning are paired with key global leading variables – the US Dollar, US Government Interest Payments, the Proportion of Central Banks Cutting Rates, the OECD CLI Diffusion Index and the China Credit Impulse to identify the risk bias – the wind conditions. The Growth Cycle and Inflation Cycle segment the Macro Regime – the sea conditions – and point towards style factors that are likely to outperform or underperform.

The result is a monthly macro map designed to keep savvy investors disciplined, objective and systematic as they navigate their portfolio through macro waters. The models and seven indicators behind LOGIC are proprietary – you get the signal, not the wiring.

Macro Regimes: the four seas

REGIMES + RISK SCORE

Each Macro Regime or sea is defined by the acceleration ↑ or deceleration ↓ of the Growth (G) and Inflation (I) cycles. Those simple directions segment the macro ocean into four distinct environments.

Goldilocks G↑ • I↓
Growth accelerating, inflation decelerating. Historically the smoothest sailing for risk assets.
Reflation G↑ • I↑
Growth and inflation both pick up as credit and policy support amplify the business cycle and push the tide higher.
Deflation G↓ • I↓
Growth and inflation both slowing. Often where capital hides in quality, duration and defense while the storm passes.
Inflation G↓ • I↑
Growth decelerating while inflation runs hot. Choppier waters, especially when liquidity is tightening and the dollar is strong.

0–7 Risk Bias Score

Each of the seven proprietary indicators is a switch: 1 for favorable, 0 for hostile. Add them up to a score from 0–7:

0 — seas hostile 7 — seas inviting
Score: 4 / 7 Risk-On

If 4 or more switches are on, the regime is Risk-On. If 3 or fewer, it’s Risk-Off. The magnitude of the score matters too – historically, higher scores have corresponded to stronger performance for risk assets.

What tends to outperform / underperform in each regime?

Style factors & sectors

Below is a list of how major equity style factors, sectors and fixed income categories have tended to behave in each LOGIC Macro Regime. Historical tendencies only – not a guarantee of future results and not investment advice.

GOLDILOCKS
Top Equity Style Factors
  • High Beta
  • Small Caps
  • Mega Cap Growth
  • Cyclicals
  • Mid Caps
Bottom Equity Style Factors
  • Low Beta
  • Defensives
  • Size
  • Quality
  • Dividends
Top Equity Sectors
  • Consumer Discretionary
  • Financials
  • Technology
  • Materials
  • Industrials
Bottom Equity Sectors
  • Utilities
  • Communication Services
  • Real Estate
  • Consumer Staples
  • Health Care
Top Fixed Income Sectors
  • BDCs
  • Convertibles
  • HY Credit
  • EM $ Debt
  • Preferreds
Bottom Fixed Income Sectors
  • Long Bond
  • 0–5yr TIPS
  • Treasury Belly
  • MBS
  • 5–10yr TIPS
REFLATION
Top Equity Style Factors
  • Mega Cap Growth
  • High Beta
  • Cyclicals
  • Momentum
  • Small Caps
Bottom Equity Style Factors
  • Low Beta
  • Dividends
  • Defensives
  • Quality
  • Large Caps
Top Equity Sectors
  • Technology
  • Industrials
  • Consumer Discretionary
  • Financials
  • Energy
Bottom Equity Sectors
  • Real Estate
  • Consumer Staples
  • Utilities
  • Communication Services
  • Health Care
Top Fixed Income Sectors
  • BDCs
  • Convertibles
  • Preferreds
  • HY Credit
  • EM Local Currency
Bottom Fixed Income Sectors
  • Long Bond
  • Treasury Belly
  • IG Credit
  • MBS
  • Short Rates
INFLATION
Top Equity Style Factors
  • Low Beta
  • Mega Cap Growth
  • Quality
  • Dividends
  • Defensives
Bottom Equity Style Factors
  • High Beta
  • Small Caps
  • Cyclicals
  • Value
  • Mid Caps
Top Equity Sectors
  • Utilities
  • Health Care
  • Real Estate
  • Consumer Staples
  • Communication Services
Bottom Equity Sectors
  • Energy
  • Materials
  • Financials
  • Industrials
  • Consumer Discretionary
Top Fixed Income Sectors
  • Long Bond
  • EM $ Debt
  • 5–10yr TIPS
  • Treasury Belly
  • IG Credit
Bottom Fixed Income Sectors
  • BDCs
  • Convertibles
  • HY Credit
  • MBS
  • Leveraged Loans
DEFLATION
Top Equity Style Factors
  • Dividends
  • Low Beta
  • Quality
  • Defensives
  • Growth
Bottom Equity Style Factors
  • High Beta
  • Cyclicals
  • Value
  • Small Caps
  • Mid Caps
Top Equity Sectors
  • Real Estate
  • Health Care
  • Consumer Staples
  • Utilities
  • Consumer Discretionary
Bottom Equity Sectors
  • Financials
  • Industrials
  • Technology
  • Communication Services
  • Energy
Top Fixed Income Sectors
  • Long Bond
  • Treasury Belly
  • IG Credit
  • MBS
  • Short Rates
Bottom Fixed Income Sectors
  • Preferreds
  • BDCs
  • Leveraged Loans
  • HY Credit
  • EM Local Currency

What the Monthly Macro Map Looks Like

Preview Sample

A small preview of the actual spreadsheet delivered each month, before the month begins. Paid subscribers receive the full Excel version — including the LOGIC Macro Regime, 0–7 Risk Bias Score, and forward month-by-month outlook (including T+3M, T+6M & T+9M summary) given the switch position of the key leading macro variables.

Monthly Macro Map preview

One simple subscription. That’s it.

Pricing

LOGIC Macro Regime is intentionally minimal. One signal, once a month, focused on what actually matters for long-term returns: where financial markets are in the cycle and where they’re likely heading over the next 9 months.

The monthly fee is deliberately low-cost to democratize a proven institutional framework.

Every monthly update arrives as an Excel spreadsheet that’s easy to plug into your own process. It also includes the full monthly history of LOGIC Macro Regimes back to September 2011, so you can test how different assets and style factors behaved through past cycles.

No courses, no short-term trade alerts. Just a clear monthly macro map to help you prepare whether to drop anchor, batten the hatches, or stay the course. Embark on your macro voyage today.