Macro regime navigation for savvy investors

Stay disciplined and systematic in any macro sea.

LOGIC Macro Regime is a simple, quantitative and systematic framework for navigating financial markets based on the macro cycle. Back-tested across 14+ years of monthly data, size risk with confidence and avoid being tossed around by daily noise. One signal. Once a month. No hype – just a systematic view of the currents.

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What the Monthly Macro Map looks like: a preview of the spreadsheet delivered before the month begins.

Monthly Macro Map preview

LOGIC Framework: your macro map

The framework

Short explainer video: How LOGIC Macro Regime works

L
Liquidity Cycle
How abundant – or scarce – money is across the system. The tide that lifts (or drops) all boats.
O
Other Financial Conditions
US dollar trends, credit spreads and policy shifts that tighten or loosen the channel your portfolio sails through.
G
Growth Cycle
Whether global economic activity is accelerating or slowing – the strength of the current beneath asset prices.
I
Inflation Cycle
The direction of prices that quietly changes which assets surf and which sink.
C
Capital Positioning
How investors are actually positioned – where leverage, crowding and dry powder sit on the deck.

LOGIC Macro Regime distills nearly two decades of institutional macro and real-asset investment management experience into a simple, systematic framework for reading capital market signals.

Proprietary indicators anchored on the Liquidity Cycle, Other Financial Conditions and Capital Positioning are analyzed with key global leading variables – the US Dollar, US Government Interest Payments, the Proportion of Central Banks Cutting Rates, the OECD CLI Diffusion Index and the China Credit Impulse Index to identify if there are headwinds or tailwinds to the risk bias. The Growth Cycle and Inflation Cycle segment the Macro Regime – the sea conditions – and point towards style factors that are likely to out/under-perform.

The result is a Monthly Macro Map grounded in back-tested and empirical evidence of what truly drives markets – so you have a clear, data-driven map you can overlay on your own portfolio decisions. Its designed to keep savvy investors disciplined, objective and systematic as they navigate through macro waters. The models and seven switch indicators behind LOGIC are proprietary – you get the signal, not the wiring.

Macro Regimes: the four seas

REGIMES + RISK SCORE

Each Macro Regime or sea is defined by the acceleration ↑ or deceleration ↓ of the Growth (G) and Inflation (I) cycles. Those simple directions segment the macro ocean into four distinct environments.

Goldilocks G↑ • I↓
Growth accelerating, inflation decelerating. Historically the smoothest sailing for risk assets.
Reflation G↑ • I↑
Growth and inflation both pick up as credit and policy support amplify the business cycle and push the tide higher.
Deflation G↓ • I↓
Growth and inflation both slowing. Often where capital hides in quality, duration and defense while the storm passes.
Inflation G↓ • I↑
Growth decelerating while inflation runs hot. Choppier waters, especially when liquidity is tightening and the dollar is strong.

0–7 Risk Bias Score

Each of the seven proprietary indicators is a switch: 1 for favorable, 0 for hostile. Add them up to a score from 0–7. If 4 or more switches are on, the regime is Risk-On. If 3 or fewer, it’s Risk-Off:

0 — seas hostile 7 — seas inviting
Score: 4 / 7 Risk-On

From September 2011 to November 2025, the S&P 500’s average monthly total return in Risk-On regimes has been more than double that in Risk-Off regimes. The magnitude of the score matters too – historically, higher scores have corresponded to stronger performance for risk assets.

What tends to outperform / underperform in each regime?

Style factors & sectors

Below is a list of how major equity style factors, sectors and fixed income categories have tended to behave in each LOGIC Macro Regime. Historical tendencies only – not a guarantee of future results and not investment advice.

GOLDILOCKS
Top Equity Style Factors
  • High Beta
  • Small Caps
  • Mega Cap Growth
  • Cyclicals
  • Mid Caps
Bottom Equity Style Factors
  • Low Beta
  • Defensives
  • Size
  • Quality
  • Dividends
Top Equity Sectors
  • Consumer Discretionary
  • Financials
  • Technology
  • Materials
  • Industrials
Bottom Equity Sectors
  • Utilities
  • Communication Services
  • Real Estate
  • Consumer Staples
  • Health Care
Top Fixed Income Sectors
  • Business Development Co. Loans
  • Convertibles
  • High Yield Credit
  • Emerging Markets $ Debt
  • Preferreds
Bottom Fixed Income Sectors
  • Long Duration Bonds 10yr+
  • 0–5yr TIPS
  • Mid Duration Bonds 2-10yr
  • Mortgage Backed Securities
  • 5–10yr TIPS
REFLATION
Top Equity Style Factors
  • Mega Cap Growth
  • High Beta
  • Cyclicals
  • Momentum
  • Small Caps
Bottom Equity Style Factors
  • Low Beta
  • Dividends
  • Defensives
  • Quality
  • Large Caps
Top Equity Sectors
  • Technology
  • Industrials
  • Consumer Discretionary
  • Financials
  • Energy
Bottom Equity Sectors
  • Real Estate
  • Consumer Staples
  • Utilities
  • Communication Services
  • Health Care
Top Fixed Income Sectors
  • Business Development Co. Loans
  • Convertibles
  • Preferreds
  • High Yield Credit
  • Emerging Markets Local Currency
Bottom Fixed Income Sectors
  • Long Duration Bonds 10yr+
  • Mid Duration Bonds 2-10yr
  • Investment Grade Credit
  • Mortgage Backed Securities
  • Short Rates
INFLATION
Top Equity Style Factors
  • Low Beta
  • Mega Cap Growth
  • Quality
  • Dividends
  • Defensives
Bottom Equity Style Factors
  • High Beta
  • Small Caps
  • Cyclicals
  • Value
  • Mid Caps
Top Equity Sectors
  • Utilities
  • Health Care
  • Real Estate
  • Consumer Staples
  • Communication Services
Bottom Equity Sectors
  • Energy
  • Materials
  • Financials
  • Industrials
  • Consumer Discretionary
Top Fixed Income Sectors
  • Long Duration Bonds 10yr+
  • Emerging Markets $ Debt
  • 5–10yr TIPS
  • Mid Duration Bonds 2-10yr
  • Investment Grade Credit
Bottom Fixed Income Sectors
  • Business Development Co. Loans
  • Convertibles
  • High Yield Credit
  • Mortgage Backed Securities
  • Leveraged Loans
DEFLATION
Top Equity Style Factors
  • Dividends
  • Low Beta
  • Quality
  • Defensives
  • Growth
Bottom Equity Style Factors
  • High Beta
  • Cyclicals
  • Value
  • Small Caps
  • Mid Caps
Top Equity Sectors
  • Real Estate
  • Health Care
  • Consumer Staples
  • Utilities
  • Consumer Discretionary
Bottom Equity Sectors
  • Financials
  • Industrials
  • Technology
  • Communication Services
  • Energy
Top Fixed Income Sectors
  • Long Duration Bonds 10yr+
  • Mid Duration Bonds 2-10yr
  • Investment Grade Credit
  • Mortgage Backed Securities
  • Short Rates
Bottom Fixed Income Sectors
  • Preferreds
  • Business Development Co. Loans
  • Leveraged Loans
  • High Yield Credit
  • Emerging Markets Local Currency

One simple subscription. That’s it.

Subscribe

LOGIC Macro Regime is intentionally minimal. One signal, once a month, focused on what actually matters for portfolio performance: where financial markets are in the macro cycle and where they’re likely heading over the next 6 months.

What paid subscribers receive each month

1. Current LOGIC Macro Regime Classification of the macro sea (Goldilocks / Reflation / Inflation / Deflation), anchored in the Growth and Inflation cycles.
2. 0–7 Risk Bias Score Aggregated on/off switches across the seven proprietary indicators, summarizing whether the upcoming month's conditions are biased towards Risk-On or Risk-Off.
3. 6-month forward outlook A forward view on where the cycle is likely heading, including a 3 & 6-month summary of expected macro conditions.
4. Full historical matrix History of monthly LOGIC Macro Regimes and Risk Bias Scores back to September 2011, so you can test how different assets and style factors behaved through past cycles.

No courses, no short-term trade alerts. Just a clear Monthly Macro Map to help you prepare whether to drop anchor, batten down the hatches, or stay the course. Embark on your macro voyage today.

Contact Us

Questions & inquiries

Questions about LOGIC Macro Regime or to receive a free sample of the Monthly Macro Map. Email: monthlymacromap@logicmacroregime.com

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