A structured overview of the core macro forces and key global leading variables used to understand Liquidity, Other Financial Conditions, Growth, Inflation, and Capital Positioning cycles — and ultimately anticipate future market regimes, risk conditions, and asset market performance.
The framework organizes macro analysis into five forces, then supports them with high-signal leading variables that help identify turning points before they become obvious.
The Liquidity Cycle tracks whether money, credit, and financial resources are expanding or contracting across the global system. Liquidity is the fuel that often drives risk appetite, asset prices, and macro regime shifts.
Read more →Other Financial Conditions measure whether the channels through which liquidity flows are opening or closing. The US dollar, credit spreads, rates, oil, and market stress help determine whether liquidity can actually reach the economy and asset markets.
Read more →The Growth Cycle captures whether global economic momentum is improving or deteriorating. Markets usually respond to changes in growth direction before traditional data like GDP confirms the turn.
Read more →The Inflation Cycle tracks whether pricing pressure is accelerating or easing. Inflation direction matters because it shapes central bank behavior, discount rates, real returns, and the macro regime backdrop.
Read more →Capital Positioning measures how investors have already reacted to the macro environment. Even the right macro thesis can fail if the trade is already crowded and the marginal buyer has disappeared.
Read more →The US Dollar Index is a powerful read on global financial conditions because dollar strength can tighten liquidity while dollar weakness can ease conditions. A falling dollar often acts like a global liquidity release valve for risk assets.
Read more →This variable tracks the breadth and momentum of global monetary easing. When more central banks begin cutting rates together, liquidity can build, financial conditions can ease, and markets often begin discounting a more supportive environment.
Read more →US government interest payments help capture delayed fiscal liquidity effects as higher interest income eventually flows into the private sector. This variable is an important forward-looking input within the broader liquidity framework.
Article coming soonChina’s credit impulse measures the rate of change in credit creation across one of the world’s most important economic engines. When Chinese credit accelerates, it can lead global growth, commodities, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Read more →The OECD CLI Diffusion Index measures how many major economies are seeing leading indicators improve at the same time. It is a clean signal for whether global growth momentum is becoming more synchronized or deteriorating.
Read more →The Monthly Macro Map brings the LOGIC indicators together into a rules-based macro regime outlook, risk bias, and forward-looking market framework.