A synthesized view of how key macro variables interact to pinpoint where we are in the cycle.
LOGIC Macro Regime • March 23, 2026
Ahoy!
LOGIC Macro Regime converts sophisticated macro strategy into a systematic positioning tool. Trusted by institutional investors.
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Please note this is a lagged sample report that all LOGIC Macro Regime subscribers received well before the referenced month began.
Importantly, this signal is not based on noisy short-term market moves or headlines. There is no shortage of geopolitical narratives adding volatility and whipsawing markets.
This is precisely when the LOGIC Crew steps back and objectively assesses the underlying tides that mechanically move markets. The conditions ahead reflect the aggregate state of the Liquidity, Other Financial Conditions, Growth, Inflation, and Capital Positioning cycles, alongside key global leading variables.
As of now, several market developments continue to reinforce — not contradict — the current LOGIC signal: a deterioration from last month’s 7 / 7 Risk-On Goldilocks, but not yet a full breakdown. The six-month outlook remains broadly similar to what was expected last month, although rolling the window forward now shows that September may be setting up as a more fragile point in the cycle.
Global credit, base money, and broad money supply continue to grow at a modest pace.
As noted in December, the U.S. Federal Reserve began purchasing $40 billion per month of U.S. Treasury Bills to manage bank reserve levels, adding incremental liquidity. Total Fed balance sheet assets stood near $6.61 trillion as of mid-February, rising from the prior month and reinforcing that this liquidity support remains in place.
The People’s Bank of China also expanded its balance sheet by roughly $150 billion USD over the last month, underscoring its commitment to reflating the Chinese economy.
Overall, the tide of money remains moderately supportive and continues to favor risk assets at the margin.
An elevated share of central banks are cutting policy rates, and expectations for further easing into 2026 have firmed.
However, volatility persists in the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) market, which remains important because of its connection to the carry trade. In addition, the U.S. dollar and oil prices have both risen, making key financial inputs more expensive.
This weakening in Other Financial Conditions is a major reason why the Risk Bias Score declined to 5 this month from 7 last month.
The growth picture is less clean than it was last month, though still strong in aggregate.
There may be some softness in March, but the broader trend remains constructive: over 94% of the OECD’s Composite Leading Indicators for global economies have positive month-over-month readings.
These forward-looking indicators — which are what matter most for the macro map — continue to point to a broader global growth re-acceleration after this near-term softness passes.
That combination of resilient growth and cooling inflation, especially after March, is still consistent with a Goldilocks backdrop in the LOGIC framework.
Inflation continues to cool directionally across major economies, which has historically supported risk assets by giving central banks room to remain patient or ease further if needed.
In the United States, CPI for all items rose 2.4% year-over-year in January, down from 2.7% in December. In Canada, CPI rose 2.3% year-over-year in January 2026, with nine provinces showing slower price growth than in December. In Japan, January core inflation cooled to roughly 2.0%, around the Bank of Japan’s target.
The inflation tide is still moving in a cooling direction. That does not mean inflation is gone, but the rate of change remains favorable as far out as September based on current signals.
Despite strong asset gains in 2024–2025, investor positioning still does not appear fully extended on our metrics.
Capital remains selectively allocated rather than fully committed. Leverage and speculative positioning remain modest, and we are not seeing the type of rampant crowding or over-extension that typically comes before major market tops.
In plain language: the regime can remain Risk-On while still being vulnerable to corrections. When positioning gets more crowded, markets tend to drop faster when surprises emerge. We are not late-cycle yet, but we may be approaching that phase by September if future Monthly Macro Maps begin to show a string of Risk-Off months.
Once the leading indicators turn more decisively, that shift will be telegraphed to subscribers in advance.
You can visit the website for asset, style, and sector factors that historically have outperformed or underperformed in this kind of Macro Regime: Style Factors & Sectors
You can also see our past Blogs.